Equis Research President and CEO Stephanie Valencia, a Las Cruces resident and former Obama advisor, breaks down what the general election means for Democrats and southern New Mexico. Valencia spoke with KRWG's
Susan Morée.
Susan Morée:
What do you make out of this blue wave?
Stephanie Valencia:
So what we saw is Democrats really chipping away at multiple cycles worth of losses with Latino voters across the country. What we saw happen in 2024 was a pretty marked shift of Latino voters to Republicans. And so the gains that we saw among Latino voters were real. But they aren't necessarily permanent, just as 2024 was not permanent. But I would say looking at these trends and having studied these trends for the last many years is that Latinos really flexed their muscle, showing themselves as the new swing voter in the country. For a long time, people have called Latino voters the sleeping giant. And what they have really shown is they are now the swinging giant.
Susan Morée:
And what do you think that means going forward? Will the Democrats and the Republicans both be working to try to encourage Latino voters to swing towards their party? And how might that result in policy changes for either party?
Stephanie Valencia:
Well, by definition, a swing is not a permanent move in a particular direction. A swing really illustrates impermanence. And so both parties have to really understand and contend that Latinos are up for grabs. A third of Latino voters don't really consider themselves strong partisans. They consider themselves independents. And so the partisan framing that we have used for a very long time doesn't necessarily apply or resonate to a good chunk of Hispanic voters. We know that this election, the cost of living, the cost of gas, overall overreach on immigration, the wars abroad are all things that really motivated and drove out Latinos to vote this election cycle for Democrats because they really wanted to see change. At the same time, just two years ago, many of those same issues drove Latinos toward Trump. And so this, you know, moment is really a probationary period of Democrats with Latino voters.
Susan Morée:
And do you see that impacting specifically any policies for southern New Mexico?
Stephanie Valencia:
Well, one of the interesting trends from last night, including New Mexico, too, is for the first time ever, the entirety of the US-Mexico border supported Democratic candidates. And so there is, you know, the issue of immigration we know and understand and experience here in southern New Mexico with our close proximity to the US-Mexico border. And I think what is clear that we have seen through the years of polling that we've done at Equis Research and we've seen in recent polling on the issue of immigration on the border, they want order, security and fairness. And by order, they want an orderly process for people to come to this country. They want order at the border. Security really means security in our communities that immigration enforcement is going to keep all of us safe and that immigration enforcement is going to be right-sized and targeting actual criminals and serious threats. And that there's a sense of fairness that there is a process for people to get right with the law who have kind of kept their heads down and have followed the rule of law, who have been here a long time. And so the combination of those three things are pretty clear and pretty straightforward for what Latino voters are asking for and things that we really understand being here in southern New Mexico.
Susan Morée:
The Democrats have kind of struggled with border security as an issue, and you have a long history with the Democrats. Do you think that they have a strategy for that to continue to keep the Latino voters and find a way to create a path for citizenship that everybody can be happy with?
Stephanie Valencia:
Well, I think that what Democrats maybe have gotten wrong is not necessarily taking the issue head on and understanding that having a secure border and also a right-sized immigration enforcement mechanism plus pathways to legalization are not necessarily contradictory things. They don't cancel each other out. And so having an ability to be able to talk about a secure border and allow goods and people to move freely with order and control and some semblance of that order and control is really important while also understanding immigrants are a huge contributor to our communities, to our economy, from the construction industry, the agricultural industry, the hospitality and service industries, this country cannot function without immigrant workers. And so we do have to also acknowledge people who have been here a long time, contributing to our economy, following the law and finding a pathway to citizenship for them as well.
Susan Morée:
I think President Donald Trump is now officially considered a lame duck president. What do you think might happen in the next two years?
Stephanie Valencia:
Democrats have to have big, bold ideas. You know, part of what this mandate was from the American people was what is happening right now is not working. People do not feel like the systems and the economy that is in place is working or working for them. And so Democrats need to take some big swings and show that they can fight for what people sent them to fight for and to get refocused on the right priorities, putting money in people's pockets, bringing down the cost of goods, right-sizing immigration reform, and ending these endless wars abroad.
Susan Morée:
All right. Is there anything I haven't asked you, Stephanie, that you think I should have?
Stephanie Valencia:
No, thank you. This is such a pleasure.
