The Bureau of Reclamation released water from Elephant Butte dam last week and warns that with the lowest snowpack on record and ongoing drought, this will be a low flow year and Elephant Butte Lake could drop to 2% of capacity by August. KRWG host Susan Morée spoke with Carolyn Donnelly, water operations supervisor for the Bureau's Albuquerque office. This is a transcript of their conversation.
Susan Morée:
So Carolyn, I understand that we have had the lowest snowpack on record. How is that going to impact the lower Rio Grande?
Carolyn Donnelly:
It's not so much going to impact them. What's happened this year, it's not going to have a huge impact on them this year. Because a lot, what they typically irrigate on is what came into the reservoir from about, oh, April through the start of the release season the previous year. So, what it could have a big impact on them next year, which is unfortunate since this year, which is from last year's runoff, is pretty poor. So, it for them, it probably means another bad year, low amount of surface water irrigation.
Susan Morée:
And what about the drought conditions? What is that looking like right now?
Carolyn Donnelly:
Drought is a funny word. So, I mean, 2023 was a pretty good flow year. 2024 was not, 2025 was not. So, we're going into our third year of very low flows, at least in the northern part of the state. And I think down south, you all got good rains in like October, November. So that helped with soil moisture. So, there's more of a bank of water in the soil so that when we did get snow, it's running off. A little bit more of it is running off rather than going into the soil. But it's just, I guess I just repeat, it's the third dry year in a row and our reservoirs are designed to take us through brief three fifths of, it depends on how much we have stored up, but they're like a bank account. And so we've been drawing down on our bank account and we really don't have much left there.
Susan Morée:
And Elephant Butte Lake, I understand it's going to drop down to about 2% of its capacity by late August. Is that correct?
Carolyn Donnelly:
That's what we're predicting based on a poor monsoon season. So, if we get good rains, it may not drop down that low. But if we don't get good rains, it could drop down that low.
Susan Morée:
And is there a forecast at this point in terms of what the monsoon season might look like?
Carolyn Donnelly:
That's a much harder thing to do, and I am not a weatherman, but we have moved into like, what are they calling it? ENSO neutral. So, they're expecting that by the fall we'll have shifted into the El Nino conditions. So, they're thinking, the weather service, that it's the Climate Prediction Center is giving us better than average chances of a good monsoon season. But it's a hard thing for anyone, even somebody who is a weatherman, to predict.
Susan Morée:
Well, that's a little bit of good news, at least. We can at least be hopeful. But if the reservoir does drop down to 2% of capacity, is that the lowest it's ever been?
Carolyn Donnelly:
No, in the 1950s, I think it was 1954, but I'm not certain of the exact year. That was an extended drought period, and it got down to about 13,000 acre feet, which would probably have been about half a percent of full.
Susan Morée:
And is the Bureau of Reclamation, is there anything that you all can do to try to offset some of the poor water flow at this stage?
Carolyn Donnelly:
You know, in the 1970s, we also had another extended period of, I guess, what I'd call drought or low flows. And there was some legislation that asked us to move trans basin water to Elephant Butte, which is water that we divert from the Colorado River basin into New Mexico. But back then, there was some water that wasn't allocated to a particular entity, and now all of that trans basin water is being used. So, really, there's not much we can do. All the, yeah, there's no additional reservoir storage upstream. And so, other than trying to improve things like efficiency of flows, you know, that could help, but probably not in this year.
Susan Morée:
What about Caballo Reservoir? It doesn't get as much attention as Elephant Butte does. What do you expect there?
Carolyn Donnelly:
We operate Caballo mostly to allow our releases for irrigation to be consistent. So, we have started releasing from Elephant Butte. We started and then we'll get Caballo up to about 50,000 acre feet, which is probably five times what it was. Well, not quite, but four to five times what the content was. And then we'll hold it there for a little bit and then let it draw down as we release water for irrigation. So Caballo will be fine, but it doesn't seem to get the attention as a recreational area. So, if you do like getting out on Caballo at higher levels, I'd suggest getting out there pretty soon.
Susan Morée:
And what about for farmers in the area? Is there anything that they can do given the low flow situation?
Carolyn Donnelly:
I think the same thing. The things that they can do are not necessarily short-term things. So, you know, looking at different crops or different ways to irrigate more efficiently could certainly help them. And I'm not a farmer, so they may have ways to help themselves in a particular year, but I'm not certain that anything they can do now is going to be immediately beneficial. And I think the farmers down there are pretty efficient. They've been through low, low years for a while.
Susan Morée:
And as you mentioned, the Bureau of Reclamation just released water in the Rio Grande. What should users be aware of right now? Is it dangerous to get out on the river?
Carolyn Donnelly:
Yeah, I would stay away from the river unless you really know what you're doing between Elephant Butte and Caballo. We will not begin releasing from Caballo down to the farmers until, we believe, it's going to be May 29th. So that is definitely a time to stay away from the river and keep your eyes open for the water coming up real soon. Right now, though, the river between Caballo and Elephant Butte, it should be connected. So, I think if people have all the proper safety equipment and like to either kayak or raft or inner tube, whatever, down the river in that stretch. So long as they have all their safety equipment, it's probably fine.
Susan Morée:
All right. Well, thank you so much, Carolyn. I really appreciate it.
Carolyn Donnelly:
No problem.
