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Data Drives New Mexico Coronavirus Response

New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham
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Office of the New Mexico Governor

Across the nation, the debate is on over when to slowly reopen the economy. 

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham says New Mexico is not yet at a point where it can relax social distancing measures.  Her statements came in response to President Donald Trump's announcement of an approach for states to restore normal activity. Small business owners are pleading with the Governor to ease some restrictions, as federal statistics showed another spike in unemployment. In a press conference, the Governor addressed the concern some small business owners have expressed over the fairness of allowing big box stores to operate while they have been shuttered.

“The notion that if you’ve got risk at one place, it’s fair to risk at two places is not an effective strategy when you’re dealing with a public health emergency.  The virus is not fair, does not care where humans are in contact with other humans, and we continue to restrain the number of individuals in big box stores and the only reason they stayed as essential businesses by and large was because people do need access to construction (materials) to make sure our wastewater systems are intact, that we can still travel on our roads, that our internet will be up, that our roofs will be whole.  We have to have that.  And we have to have access to food. So when you look at the life and safety needs of an individual and a family, that’s how we make these very difficult decisions,” said Lujan Grisham.

New Mexico Republican Party Chairman Steve Pearce says small businesses can maintain social distancing guidelines if they’re allowed to reopen.

“We can maintain the five or less people in an establishment and still be open for business.  But somewhere, the Main Street owned by Mom and Pop owners throughout New Mexico need to be spoken for, and we’re speaking today for that,” said Pearce.

Credit Dr. David Scrase / New Mexico Human Services Secretary
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New Mexico Human Services Secretary

But state health officials say it’s important for New Mexico to reduce potential exposure.  Cases are still doubling every few days. That was one message from Human Services Secretary Dr. David Scrase.

“We have done through social distancing as a state, an amazing job.  We’re now up to 4.6 days for cases to double…they’re still doubling…that’s still really important.  But we believe that the effective social distancing that everybody has been doing has really been what’s made the difference in this.  So I wanted to thank everyone in New Mexico who’ve been staying at home. We know that’s hard to do. It’s working.  And this curve really is flattening.  And that surge we were predicting…those numbers are getting lower.  The time is being pushed out a little bit to give our healthcare system more time to react and get ready,” said Scrase.

And national health officials say it’s not clear if states will be able to reduce restrictions on May 1.  Doctor Anthony Fauci told CNN recently there’s hope, but that’s all.

“We are hoping that the end of the month we can look around, and say OK, is there any element here that we can safely and cautiously start pulling back on?  If so, do it.  If not, then just continue to hunker down,” said Fauci.

Now some positive news in dealing with the crisis.

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham says more personal protective equipment is arriving in the state.

“So the respirator masks, what we call N-95s for healthcare workers…we just got 200,000. Surgical masks…which look an awful lot like the mask I was wearing…we got 1.3 million in.  And the plastic face shields that are the further protection to make sure that we are protecting your entire face from letting that virus get access to you…50,000. I wanted New Mexicans to see that we are having success. We are really on this.  Is this an assurance that there will be no shortages or difficulties anywhere in the state?  No it’s not.  But it should give you great confidence that we are taking nothing for granted,” said Lujan Grisham.

The Governor says talks are underway as to the strategy for reopening the state’s economy.  And the state has agreed to be part of a federal test of contact tracing.  That involves notifying those who have come in contact with people who have been infected, and ensuring they are tested and quarantined.

“We have a long way to go in New Mexico.  It was never going to be easy.  It’s still not going to be easy.  But we are in fact saving lives.  And we are going to create an environment where maybe this country can have a different health response and be more prepared for the next public health emergency and pandemic,” said Lujan Grisham.

But many questions remain, for New Mexico and every state.

Instead of requiring states to hit a certain threshold of cases to reduce restrictions, White House guidelines only ask states to show a "downward trajectory."

Ezekiel Emanuel is chair of the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy at the University of Pennsylvania.

He told NPR there should be a firm threshold for allowing a state to reduce restrictions.  And he said that should be close to zero new cases, like a “threshold of 20 new cases in a population of one million.”

But to even determine such a number, testing would need to be dramatically expanded.  And the federal government has not yet provided the means for that kind of widely available testing.