A new study shows that the widespread fear and isolation caused by the immigration crackdowns that began in early 2025 had a significant economic toll on Chicago commerce, draining over $1.26 billion from local businesses.
The report, published by the University of Illinois Chicago, used anonymous cellphone GPS data to track movement between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods throughout Chicago's Cook County. Researchers found that the routine back-and-forth between these areas collapsed almost immediately after President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2025, amid rampant rumors and the subsequent sweeps that Chicago would be targeted for immediate Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids.
Professor Matt Wilson, a co-author of the study, noted how strongly the economic ripples were felt outside of immigrant communities in the area. The report estimates that decreased consumer mobility cost retail shops and restaurants in non-immigrant neighborhoods roughly $1.26 billion, while costing the state of Illinois an estimated $107 million in lost tax revenue.
"We see a 9% drop in retail and a 10% drop in restaurant visits, and it persisted for about a year," Wilson told NPR. "And it's not that it recovered after a year. People's behavior systematically changed after January 20, 2025." He says the city has yet to recover.
For small businesses, a sustained 10% drop in foot traffic business over the course of a year can be a serious financial hit. The new study challenges assumptions about immigrant community isolation, Wilson added. "I think a lot of people treat Latino and some immigrant communities as if they're insular and isolated," Wilson said. "But it's really that these communities are much more integrated into the broader economy, and they are making trips to faraway places in the county, routinely."
The intense fear that triggered these behavior shifts was palpable in the days surrounding the 2025 inauguration.
"I have to go grocery shopping, but I haven't. What if ICE is there?" a Chicago waitress named Caridad told NPR at the time, requesting that her last name be withheld, for fear of being targeted. "People are more than afraid, they're panicking."
Since then, the administration's immigration crackdowns have resulted in hundreds of thousands of arrests nationwide. Today, the immigration detention population sits at a record high of approximately 65,000 people.
The White House defended the aggressive enforcement strategy. In a statement to NPR, White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said, "Removing these criminals from the streets makes communities safer for business owners and customers. Nearly 70% of ICE arrests are of illegal aliens charged or convicted of a crime in the U.S."
However, ICE's own agency statistics show that roughly 70% of those currently detained have no criminal convictions.
The new report is part of a growing body of research confirming that large-scale immigration enforcement operations send severe economic shockwaves through broader local economies. A Brookings Institution report estimates estimates a roughly 1.7 percentage point decline in aggregate consumer spending in high-enforcement states
In Minneapolis, the city estimates total economic damage from ICE enforcement sweeps there at nearly $700 million, with small businesses in the city losing more than $81 million in revenue in January alone.
Copyright 2026 NPR
