MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Mediators are trying to keep the U.S. and Iran talking. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And since then, Qatar says it is exchanging messages between the U.S. and Iran. Let's talk about the process with Robert Malley. He served as a U.S. special envoy for Iran in the Biden administration, and he was a lead negotiator for the U.S. in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Good morning, Mr. Malley. Thanks for joining us once again.
ROBERT MALLEY: Good morning.
MARTIN: How do you break through a situation like this? I mean, negotiations have been stuck for months. Both sides seem to say they're ready to negotiate, but also just as ready to keep fighting.
MALLEY: Right. And so I'd say the good news that they're still talking, at least indirectly. The less good news is they seem to be talking past each other. You know, they've kind of agreed on what steps they have to take. They've agreed they have to open the Strait of Hormuz, which means both Iran and the U.S. have to lift their respective blockades. Iran has to get some economic relief, and then they have to also deal with the nuclear issue and the broader sanctions issue.
Those - they know what they need to do, but they disagree fundamentally on who goes first. And that's because - you think, who cares who goes first? But it's because there's a huge gap in trust and because of the politics on both sides. And those are getting in the way. And at this point, I'd say they can see the same situation, but they read it very differently because each side thinks it has more leverage than the other, and each side thinks that time is on its side and the other side will buckle first.
MARTIN: OK. Speaking of leverage points or pressure points, we've been reporting that more oil has been making it through the Strait of Hormuz, although I think, as anybody who buys gas knows, oil prices remain high. How does that change Iran's calculations, in your view?
MALLEY: Well, first, I think it's right. I mean, from every - the data we're seeing is that, you know, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are now reaching - they're not quite, but they're approaching the levels of the - of pre-war. Now, that's - first of all, it's changing President Trump's calculus because he thinks, why should I pay Iran to open a strait that they're not able to keep closed? Iran looks at it quite differently. First of all, right now, they still look at the price of oil, which is high, as you said, because the flow of oils entail military escorts, insurance prices are up. Crude oil may go through, but refined petroleum diesel - the prices are extremely high for a variety of reasons.
So the Iranians, No. 1, think, you know, over time, President Trump is going to is going to face this pressure. But they also think they have other cards in - up their sleeve, and if they feel that the U.S. is not under sufficient pressure, they can resume their escalation. They could attack oil infrastructure in Gulf countries. They could try to interrupt the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz by finding new ways of attacking ships. So yes, they're under pressure because they understand that they're losing some of their leverage. They still think they have some, and they still have many ways, in their eyes, of making the pain felt by the U.S. and the rest of the world elevated once again.
MARTIN: Do you think they're keeping an eye on the U.S. elections? I know that the - Iran's Revolutionary Guard put out this open letter to, quote, "the honorable people of the U.S." full of references to the midterms. Do you think that they're looking at those as - is that part of their calculus?
MALLEY: They're absolutely looking at those. I mean, I think if Iran could vote, the turnout level would be almost 100%. They seem to be very, very focused on our elections, and they're reading it in several ways. No. 1, they see that a number of Republicans are calling on President Trump to end the war. That's why they still think that they have leverage and they're not about to buckle. They also - so they have this sense that what they do can have a real impact on the elections.
Now, that drives them in two opposite directions. On the one hand, they may think, you know, if we could get a deal now, President Trump needs it more because he wants to burnish the chances of his party, so maybe they have more leverage now, but they also are extremely allergic at the idea of helping President Trump, of giving him a gift when they consider him responsible for devastating war and for killing their leaders.
MARTIN: Robert Malley was a lead negotiator for the U.S. in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Mr. Malley, thank you so much.
MALLEY: Thank you.
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