Virus forecast model from US defense team draws attention

Apr 20, 2020


SANTA FE, N.M. (AP) — A team of national defense scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory with an award-winning track record for modeling human contagions has developed its own forecast for the spread of the coronavirus.

It’s one model that states are utilizing as they consider the duration of directives on social distancing and restrictions on business. The Los Alamos model builds upon a decade of past experience in forecasting contagions from the seasonal flu to the Ebola virus.

The lab’s new COVID-19 model shows the likelihood that any U.S. state has hit its daily infections peak and may be on downward path.