Commentary:
Claudia Sheinbaum was sworn in as Mexico’s new president on October 1. She faces a myriad of domestic and foreign issues that will have her facing a steep learning curve for a time to come. As pertains to Mexico’s relationship with the U.S. and building programs that yield positive results in the future, there are several areas she can focus on. This is especially true as the U.S. will elect a new president on November 5. The timing of the presidential elections in Mexico and the U.S., and the opportunity of at least four years of cooperation and building relationships – the Mexico president serves six years without reelection, while the new U.S. president will serve four years, with the possibility of being reelected for another four years – provides a window to make concrete progress in U.S.-Mexico relations. While this list is not inclusive of all that the U.S. and Mexico can do, it is the low-hanging fruit that can be addressed quickly.
An immediate issue that Sheinbaum can address that is also a major issue in the U.S., as pertains to Mexico, is the illegal drug trade. Americans are concerned about highly organized Mexican cartels that have logistical chains to smuggle toxic drugs such as fentanyl to the U.S., mostly through the ports of entry. Cartels have expanded their operations by entering the lucrative human smuggling trade, especially as the U.S. has cracked down on undocumented migrants entering the country. Cartels have even managed to take over legitimate parts of the Mexican economy through extortion and corruption.
As with the case with her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), Sheinbaum has pledged that her administration will not restart the government’s war against the cartels. However, she still can work quietly with U.S. agencies such as Homeland Security Investigations and the DEA to create effective ways to surveil and hamper cartel activities, and apprehend cartel kingpins. Such cooperation was the case with the capture and arrest of drug lords Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquin Guzman Lopez in July.
Sheinbaum also can cooperate with the U.S. on energy policy. AMLO moved to pull PEMEX back under public control, rather than further liberalizing it. PEMEX continues to lose billions of dollars per year, and its oil fields are rapidly being tapped out using traditional methods of drilling. Mexico has an opportunity to attract foreign investment to bring new technologies in oil production to the country. It also has the chance to jump-start the move to the development of renewable energy by partnering with the U.S., which AMLO stymied during his tenure. By trade, Sheinbaum is an environmental engineer and climate scientist who has stated that she favors renewable energy. Because of her background, she has the opportunity to make positive changes in Mexico to combat climate change. She is a scientist, who uses scientific evidence to come to conclusions that can lead to positive action in this field.
A critically important area in which Sheinbaum needs to develop a strong relationship with the U.S. is trade. Each of these two nations is the other’s largest trading partner. In 2023, U.S.-Mexico trade totaled a whopping $798 billion dollars. In order maintain this productive trade relationship, Sheinbaum and the next U.S. president will have to develop an effective line of communication and an alliance on trade policy. Per its terms, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada-Agreement (USMCA) will need to be reviewed in 2026. This could be a tightening-up of certain areas of the agreement, or a worst-case scenario of outright cancellation of the agreement. The tremendous success of U.S.-Mexico trade was jump-started by the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, and continued with the establishment of the USMCA in 2020. A sustained increase in trade, which results in billions of dollars of investment, and millions of jobs in both countries, depends on trade cooperation.
In order to keep trade flowing, investment in border infrastructure, especially the international ports of entry on the U.S.-Mexico border, is needed. Sheinbaum must commit resources to Mexico’s northern ports of entry in order to avoid slowdowns in supply chains and resources crossing back and forth between the two countries. AMLO focused on infrastructure to create economic development in southern Mexico, but the ‘bigger bang’ for the buck lies in Mexico’s industrialized northern states. Sheinbaum must develop a good rapport with the new U.S. president to work together on this issue. It does neither country any good to invest in port infrastructure if the other side is not committed. This has to be done concurrently. Modern port infrastructure is also a way to combat drug flows, the majority of which are smuggled through the ports of entry.
Finally, Sheinbaum has to manage Mexico’s image in the U.S., as many Americans only associate Mexico with drug cartels, murders, and corruption, rather than as a neighbor and ally with which the U.S. enjoys a symbiotic relationship across many areas. She has had an impressive career in both the public and private sectors. She can use her background and knowledge to make Americans realize that there is talent in Mexico that can work with the U.S. to develop opportunities and to solve problems for the benefit of both countries.
Jerry Pacheco is President of the Border Industrial Association. Jerry Pacheco's opinions are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of KRWG Public Media.