KC Counts talks with Dr. Dubois about this year's expectations for monsoon season, cuts in staffing at the weather service which will impact data collection, and more. Here is a portion of part 1 of their conversation:
KC:
Thank you so much for being so generous with your time. We're glad to have you back.
Dr. DuBois:
It's great to be back.
KC:
I'd like to begin with the series of presentations you're doing this week that the public can attend, either in person or online. You've got a presentation through the Doña Ana Soil and Water Conservation District, and you'll be talking a little bit about drought in the state, monsoon season, and some of the challenges the states been facing regarding deadly flash flooding and more. Why don't we start with a little bit about drought? I heard a reference by Investigative Journalist Jerry Redfern, who said he's trying to stop himself from using the word drought because that typically is a more short-term word and aridification maybe should be the word we should be using. Tell us about that.
Dr. DuBois
Yeah, the previous way I defined drought in New Mexico - I mean we started around right around 1999 and then we've had drought come and go over the years and a lot of it's from these La Niñas, and that's a large scale pattern and we've had a bunch of those. But we've also had some El Ninos, which are our kind of prizes when we get cool weather and snow in the mountains in the winter. So that's been our mechanism to provide drought and relief. But you bring up a really good question because the climate community has been been really talking about, you know, when do when do we just call it - this is a long term drought, but there's other terms, a little more arid, aridification, and that's been the topic of a lot of people all the way up to the researchers and then how do you communicate this?
KC:
Is there a consensus on what that means exactly?
Dr. DuBois:
There are some official definitions of you know, aridification. You know, this is sort of a permanent state. It's a little more like it for New Mexico. We're already arid to semi-arid and it's just drier, you know, basically. And it's not just precipitation, it's the additional warming temperatures. Basically, high temperatures and but also warmer springs and warmer falls and winters.
KC:
Right. And warmer nights. I was just struck last night - I keep my thermostat at 77 and it was on all night.
Dr. DuBois
Yeah, exactly. That is that is one of the hidden things, the hazards that we're seeing is we don't get the relief we use to in the evenings and that's just compounded by, like urban heat islands.
KC:
So, let's talk about this year's monsoon season. Fruitful so far, too much so for some communities, like the disastrous situation last week in Ruidoso, causing the deaths of three people, including two children. That was, I guess, 3 inches of rain or so that fell. And and that was just more than the channels could handle. And that community kind of got used to this localized flooding. When it rains, we know to avoid Mechem and Sudderth. We know to avoid the Canyon roads. But this was something so different.
Dr. DuBois:
Yeah. Well, my first of all, my heart goes out to the families, people who are affected, that that family from Fort Bliss. I just feel so sorry. And also the people who were affected who lost residences and ways to work. And that's really hard. But you know kind of looking back on what's going on? You know the wildfire. That sums it up in terms of how and why this is happening.
KC:
I heard it described really well by a BAER Team member who was on the Trout Fire saying it just takes the soil from being like a sponge to being like a rooftop and that really gives you a picture of what happens.
Dr. DuBois:
Exactly, yeah. The more intense the fire, the more impact it has to the soil's physical property. And then as soon as you get even just a little bit of rain, you know, even like I've heard even, like, 1/2 inch, that's sort of some thresholds that people look at. And then if you get something catastrophic like a 2 1/2 inch plus, that's just gets worse and worse. And and and we're seeing that not only in in Ruidoso, but up up in the Herman's Peak Calf Canyon areas that are affected. So. it's becoming one of the things that we're dealing with in New Mexico all over.
KC:
Why don't we talk a little bit about what we're expecting from the monsoon season.
Dr. DuBois
Yeah. So early lead forecasts from months ago showed, you know, this little bright light in the future. And it was like, OK, is that gonna really pan out? Chances for above average in the southwest part of New Mexico, SE Arizona. And I was like, yeah, they kind of panned out. You know, we've gotten some good precipitation where we are here. We do have a lot of areas that are well above average, even in Las Cruces, we got like 1.46 inches and NMSU.
KC:
And last year was the driest ever at NMSU, right?
Dr. DuBois:
Yeah, yeah, we've had some going from extremely dry to looking positive. It came in fairly early in June, which was good, and because the traditional time for the monsoon to come in is right around June 15.
KC:
We kind of made an official start date just because it's easier to communicate that to people, but we're waiting for that wind pattern to shift, which is usually, for Las Cruces, the night of the Electric Light Parade.
Dr. DuBois:
Yeah. Exactly. Yeah, we'll take it. Yeah, I remember some of those in the past, yeah.
KC:
Well, listen in the next portion of our conversation, I want to talk a little bit about some of the changes we're seeing around New Mexico in terms of tools for people like yourself and and individuals who volunteer to share weather information. So thank you so much. Doctor David DuBois, state climatologist, for joining us and we look forward to hearing more.
Dr. DuBois:
Ohh, thank you. Appreciate that.
Listen to the second portion of this conversation:
