Commentary: In 2008, Kevin Costner starred in the movie “Swing Vote,” about a drunken egg inspector living in Texico, New Mexico who, thanks to his enterprising young daughter and a string of events, ends up with the one uncounted vote in a presidential election that is tied.
The media and the two presidential campaigns descend on Texico. Guided by cynical handlers, the candidates promise anything to win the one decisive vote.
That Hollywood scenario is dancing through Gary Johnson’s head as he returns to the political fray to take on incumbent U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich.
Johnson, who served two terms as a Republican governor and ran for president in 2012 and vice president in 2016 as a Libertarian, told the Sun-News editorial board that he had retired from politics and moved on to other ventures. Then, Aubrey Dunn came calling with a story that was too appealing to resist.
Imagine if the November election leaves the Senate split evenly between Republicans and Democrats. As the only Libertarian, that would position Johnson to break the inevitable tie votes that would follow. He could be the great decider on all issues, with the leaders of both parties currying for his favor.
“If anyone other than a Democrat or a Republican from New Mexico were elected to the U.S. Senate, arguably that would be the swing vote in the Senate,” Johnson said. “And that’s a lot to be at stake for New Mexico. So that’s a whole different scenario.”
For Johnson, a former business executive who clashed with the state Legislature throughout his two terms as governor, being one of 100 senators spending late nights jousting over the details of a 1,200-page transportation bill is not what he wants.
“If you’ve ever heard me talk about running for the U.S. Senate, I’ve always said no. It’s a job that’s all about bellying up to the trough, and that’s the last thing we need,” Johnson.
Johnson seems to be missing an obvious point. You can only have a true swing vote on a board with an odd number of members. Any ties in the Senate are settled by the vice president.
And, there are already two Independents in the Senate, to go along with the 51 Republicans and 47 Democrats. Both of them, Angus King and Bernie Sanders, are running for re-election.
The Senate has a long-history of third-party candidates — 77 in all, starting with Robert Y. Hayne of the Nullifier Party in 1830. None of the previous 77 were ever elevated to the role of tiebreaker.
I should probably forgive Johnson for indulging in what seems to me to be a wild fantasy. After winning two elections as governor with no previous political experience, and then parlaying that experience into to a run for president, Johnson has more justification than most to believe in what may appear to others to be a fantasy.
In the movie, Costner sobers up; the two candidates eventually stop listening to their advisers and rediscover their moral compass; and they all lived happily ever after.
But anybody who has followed Congress knows there are no Hollywood endings, only late nights jousting over the details of 1,200-page transportation bills.
Walter Rubel is editorial page editor of the Sun-News. He can be reached at wrubel@lcsun-news.com or follow @WalterRubel on Twitter.