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Climate Change Scientist And Skeptics Both Preparing For Water Scarce Future

Simon Thompson

Mega drought, climate change or a combination of the two scientists and climate change skeptics may not see eye to eye on what’s behind dryer weather and increasingly scarce water supplies in New Mexico but many agree on the need to dramatically improve water management. 

Most of New Mexico’s surface water supply is fed by melting snowpack running off into our rivers and streams. But warmer temperatures are leading to a shortfall- Snow seasons are getting shorter and there is less and less snowpack overall.  Surface run off is more prone to evaporation and less of it is making it into our aquifers and recharging  groundwater supplies. 

University of New Mexico professor of Earth and Planetary sciences Dave Gutzler says temperatures have increased by as much as two degrees in the past 50 years.

“It challenges our notion of how to define a drought. Strictly semantic terms we use to think of droughts as being periods of time when precipitation failed us for a few years, even a couple of decades. But as temperatures increase and precipitation continues  to vary up and down then what use to be considered a drought starts to become like the new normal"  he said. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zK6sxhnHDow&feature=youtu.be

Gutzler says those temperatures are projected to increase by another 7 to 10 degrees in the next 100 years.  He says warmer climates further south are a good indication of future climate conditions in southern New Mexico. 

“Take some place in the northern half of Chihuahua and move it north. So at that rate of change we are really talking about the rate of change we have experienced since 1970 or 1980 and simply continuing it forward in time.”

Gutzler says the state needs to  start addressing what is becoming the new reality of water in New Mexico.

Irrigated agriculture may be the most obvious place to make water gains. According to the New Mexico Lower Rio Grande regional water plan more than 86% of the region’s water is used in farming.

Mesilla Valley pecan farmer Greg Daviet collaborates with the New Mexico Pecan Growers in developing and implementing sustainable farming practices.  Practices designed to cope with water allocations, which have dropped substantially since the mid-90’s.

“Instead of 36 inches we got 7 and a half, 7 and a half, instead of our irrigation season lasting from February to October it started the first of June and it ended the first of August. So how do we manage the rest of the year given that is the small amount of water in the small amount of time” he said. 

To cope with less water some farmers are sharing water supplies and using technologies to improve water monitoring and efficiency.

Even with these measures Daviet and his colleagues are still planting heavy water use crops like pecan tress which can take several years of sustained irrigation before they return fruit or a profit. He says the measures are only intended to help get farmers by in the short term.

Daviet says he doesn’t believe the dire predictions of climate change scientists.

“I would put myself into the prepared to believe category” he said

Daviet attributes the water scarcity and higher temperatures to normal weather patterns.

“While you are in it- it is hard to remember that 60 years ago it looked like this too. Our memories are a little more recent than that. So we remember 20 years ago when it was really wet and it didn't look like that at all. But we look a lot like we did  60 years ago in the depth of the drought”

Gutzler says New Mexico water supplies are fluctuating on a 50 to 80 year drought cycle,
but climate change and the unprecedented temperature increases are bringing permanency to these conditions.
 

“There is nothing like a bad drought to focus peoples attention on a problem,  that should be addressed any way” Gutzler said
 

“I am preparing myself for whatever future may come  and don’t tend to think of it as being good or bad" Daviet said. 

Gutzler says while drought proofing is a step in the right direction, New Mexico is barely addressing climate change and has miles to go in terms of monitoring water quantities, minimizing evaporation loss of stored water, evaluating water use priorities and aquifer replenishment.
 

“What is at stake here is  the ability to agriculture to thrive, the ability of cities to grow  and the ability of people to live here comfortably  in large numbers. We have cities that have grown considerably in the last past few decades in a region that gets very  little precipitation. If we want to keep all of those things that we love about New Mexico, cities that work farm and ranches that can thrive then we better be cognizant of the  prospect for significant diminished water resources” he said. 

Gutzler says prioritizing water use needs to be informed by climate change projections.  He says that means better planning and land use.  Without action, Gutzler says the state is risking the sustainability of our way of life.

Simon Thompson was a reporter/producer for KRWG-TV's Newsmakers from 2014 to 2017. Encores of his work appear from time to time on KRWG-TV's Newsmakers and KRWG-FM's Fronteras-A Changing America.